So, clearly Bashar didn't read my blog post of 28th March (no need to write me to apologise, mate. I understand that work's been putting you under a lot of pressure recently. It's fine).
Bashar al-Assad made an eagerly awaited speech in the Syrian Parliament today - his first since mass protests began on 15th March. With this speech he had a great opportunity to regain the initiative and win over the large numbers of doubters. In my opinion, he blew it!
Too many veiled threads and talk of stability. Blaming foreign plots and satellite TV just doesn't work in 2011 when you have a well educated and IT-literate population.
Too few promises on concretes steps that will be taken to reform the country. Vague promises have been made for 11 years. Syrians are getting tired of waiting for the Godot of reforms that never quite arrive.
Virtually no mention of the dead, and certainly no apology. Even many Bashar supporters are shocked at the killings and want to see some kind of justice for the victims and their families.
It'll be interesting to see what happens on Friday.
Just as an aside, Joshua Landis is really slipping these days isn't he? He always was a little bit of a regime apologist but he may as well be on the Assad payroll the way he's been talking since 15 March kicked off. He's certainly not describing the situation as I recognise it...
Protests continue to happen across Syria. The most serious are happening in the Houran region (Daraa and surrounding towns and villages), where the Syrian governments efforts at a mix of repression and conciliation have so far failed to dispel anger over the arrest of children and the subsequent killing of protesters.
Maysaloon, a Syrian blogger has written an analysis of the situation which I think is brilliant. So brilliant that I have nothing more to add today. I urge you all to read it to get an understanding of some of the dynamics of the situation.
There are some Facebook groups who are spreading information and news in English which may be worth searching for if you are curious to learn more.
The large demonstrations in Der'a continued today, with the Syrian government employing both stick (tear gas and live ammunitition, killing at least 1 protester today) and carrot (promising talks, offering to release the arrested schoolchildren). However, these measures were not enough to conciliate the people of Der'a. Instead, they destroyed several symbolic buildings within the city - the local Ba'ath Party HQ and the offices of Syriatel, the mobile phone company owned by Rami Makhlouf. Makhlouf, President Bashar al-Assad's cousin, is the richest man in Syria and is widely loathed because he is seen to epitomise the country's corruption.
This video shows the funeral of one of the martyrs of town.
And this shows crowds of protesters having tear gas fired at them.
Now that the situation in Der'a has escalated to the point of revolt against the Ba'thist regime there is a possibility that protests will spread throughout the Hauran region of southern Syria. The Hauran is an area of large tightly-knit families and it seems very possible other families will align with Der'a. There are already reports of large demonstrations in the nearby town of Da'il. The Hauran has a long history of rebellion, and an important place in Syrian national identity. It was the place where the Great Syrian Revolt against French colonial rule began.
There were also protests in the north-east, in Qamishli. This can in part be explained by the fact that tomorrow is Nowruz, the Kurdish New Year. Syria has a Kurdish community of about 2 million (10% population), most of whom come from the north and north-east of the country and they are pretty much second-class citizens. Their language is officially banned, their nationalist parties are criminalised and they often suffer descrinimation. Several hundred thousand Kurds have even been deprived of Syrian citizenship. Nowruz provides an annual opportunity for them to assert their distinctive Kurdish identity. It is traditionally a time of clashes between young Kurdish nationalists and Syrian security officials.
Today the focus of the protests in Syria has been Der'a. Der'a is a small city in southern Syria, just a few miles from the Jordanian border. Aside from its status as capital of the eponymous province in which it's located, it's a fairly nondescript Syrian town. Nevertheless, over the last few days it has been the scene of large and angry demonstrations against the Syrian government. This has resulted in clashes with Syrian security forces who have employed water cannon, tear gas and even live ammunition. Yesterday, 4 men from the town were killed during these clashes.
Here is a video taken during the funeral of Mahmoud al-Jawabra and Wissam Ayyash which was held today (19th March) during which the crowd chanted "No god but God, martyrs are loved by God", as a mark of respect for the dead.
Despite a heavy security presence, thousands of men then took to the streets (the town has a population of about 75,000) accusing the killers of being "traitors" and calling for revolution.
In this video groups of young men confront security forces who start to shoot at them.
Der'a is now in a state of siege. It has been surrounded by security forces, with no one allowed to enter the city. The internet, landlines and mobile phone network have reportedly all been cut.
There have been demonstrations in most of the main cities in Syria during the last few days but they have remained relatively small. Clearly the majority of Syrians have been sitting on the fence. There may be a degree of sympathy towards the need for reform and increased freedom but so far most people have remained unconvinced by the calls for them to take to the streets. It has therefore been a little puzzling to see such an intense confrontation in Der'a. What has singled Der'a out?
There have been rumours circulating for a number of days about children being arrested for writing anti-regime graffiti, but today a story emerged which would seem to clearly explain why Der'a has been the scene of such anger towards the Syrian government.
According to this report (in Arabic), people in Der'a have been incensed by the arrest and interrogation of an entire class of ten-year olds who had been chanting "the people want to overthrow the system" in school. This is the chant that we first heard in Tunisia and which has been repeated in protests across the Arab world. 15 children were arrested during night-time raids on 9th March, and all of them remain in secret police custody more than ten days later. You can read an English translation here. [Update: It would seem as if the true number of arrested children is 15 rather than 25 as reported by Syrianet. Text amended]
Many Syrians were already gravely concerned at the killing of 4 or more young men and the deployment of military units to Der'a. As this story has broken, they now seem to have become particularly disturbed at the secret police's treatment of ten-year old children.
The Syrian government would also seem to be nervous about the impact that these reports might have on public opinion. They have promised to investigate what has happened in Der'a and to punish those responsible. Rumours even began to circulate that a deal had been done between the Syrian authorities and the people in Der'a.
Nevertheless, despite these reports of conciliatory gestures, at the time of writing there has still been no confirmation of an end to the siege, nor the release of the child-prisoners. To the contrary, this evening it was being reported that the local governor had fled, his home having been set ablaze by protesters, and that a battalion of tanks was being deployed to the city.
The comparisons to Hama in 1982 have started.
We are nervously watching...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This post is dedicated to the martyrs of Der'a and also to Mohammed Nabbous, a Libyan hero, who was shot dead today in Benghazi. R.I.P.
Phew, it's been a full day...
Last night, the UNSC authorised a No Fly Zone and additional measures against Col Gaddafi.
Meanwhile, the crackdown continues in Bahrain, where the government has demolished Pearl roundabout, the symbolic landmark which demonstrators calling for reforms had adopted as their gathering place. Ironically, the statue was intended to symbolise the unity of the GCC (Gulf Co-operation Council), the regional organisaion (which includes Saudi Arabia) that King al-Khalifa has now called upon to help him quell the opposition movement.
In San'a, the capital of Yemen, security forces massacred those protesting against the government. More than 30 have been reported killed and hundreds injured. This is totally despicable behaviour by President Ali Abdallah Saleh, our ally in the 'War on Terror', and indicative of a situation which seems to be rapidly deteriorating.
However, for me today was dominated by events in Syria where, for the fourth consecutive day, demonstrations were held in various towns and cities across the country. There seems to have been a dangerously rapid escalation. On 15th and 16th March scattered groups of protesters assembled to demand the end of emergency laws, the release of political prisoners, and to make a general call for freedom in Syria. However, these disparate calls have been met by steadilly mounting state brutality.
By 17th March al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper was reporting the use of live ammunition by police in the Midan and Muhajireen districts of Damascus, and the deployment of Republican Guards tanks on the outskirts of the city.
This didn't stop a group from gathering in the Umayyid mosque in the Old City of Damascus after Friday prayers who began to chant "la ilaha il-Allah" (No god but God) and then "Freedom!". One man held a sign with both the Cross and the Crescent. Incidentally, this mosque is of great significance to both Sunni and Shi'a and, because it is one of the places which claim to contain John the Baptist's head, it is also a sacred place for Christians too.
Then, in this video, we can see fighting and skuffles as security forces invade the prayer hall. Apparently 200 security personnel were involved and up to 30 people, including some under-18s, were arrested.
Here, a man is being beaten in the courtyard of the mosque:
However, during the last few days the largest protests seem to have taken place in provincial Syria.
For example, on Friday thousands protested in Der'a in Hauran (southern Syria). In this video they can be heard shouting "Freedom"
Fire engines were deployed as water cannon in an effort to disperse the crowd.
Between 3 and 6 protesters are reported to have been killed and dozens injured in Der'a today as live ammunition was used against them. Here is video of the crowd carrying a dead protester. You can clearly hear shooting in the background. (Warning: graphic)
There were reports that the army, including helicopters, have been deployed inside the city.
Large crowds also gathered in Homs, the third largest city in Syria.
Another large crowd gathered in Baniyas on the Med Coast (between Lattakia and Tartous) and chanted "God, Syria, Freedom!"
Protests have also been reported in Deir Az-Zur, Hasseke, Qamishli and Raqqa.
Witnesses in Aleppo described Syria's second city as 'quiet' today, in the midst of a heavy security presence in the centre of the city.
Demonstrations had been reported there on Tuesday. There had also been some reports of gunfire on the night of 15th March.
Personally, I'm very worried about the situation in Syria. The Syrian government has shown that it is not interested in engaging in any kind of dialogue with those who are seeking reform. Instead, it has immediately resorted to it's virtual monopoly on violence, including the use of live ammunition and the deployment of military units against civilians. Old habits die hard.
The Syrian authorities are hoping that this brutal crackdown will quickly stamp out dissent. However, it also risks strengthening opposition and exacerbating the divisions in Syrian society.
Allah m3kum.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Update 19/3: Late arriving video of Friday's protests in Deir Az-Zur in the east of Syria.
So, the Syrian Day of Rage v2 actually delivered something. However, quite what this thing is remains a little uncertain. Reports about demontrations in Aleppo, Qamishle and even Latakia, that Deir Az-Zur and towns in the Hauran (south of Damascus) had been cut-off and surrounded by security forces, or that gunfire could be heard in Aleppo tonight, all these remained mostly unverified (and several of them are patently nothing more than rumours). All we really had to latch onto were two short mobile phone video uploads showing dozens, maybe hundreds (one eye witness said 150-200) marching in souq al-Hamidiyya and Hariqa in Old Damascus.
[The main chant is "God, Syria, Freedom, that's all!". They also chant "Peaceful"]
The demonstration in Damascus was reportedly broken up very quickly by plainclothes security (characterised by the trusty leather jacket and mustache combo). Nevertheless, and certainly after the damp squib of Feb 4th, the fact that small groups of protesters actually managed to simultaneously gather in several cities across Syria will be seen as a success by the organisers.
So, if the Syrian government really has been backing Gaddafi (with pilots and weapons, something the Syrians deny doing) in an effort to halt the spread of pro-democracy protests we can somewhat cautiously say that this policy has failed regardless of whether the Libyan uprising is ultimately successful or not.
It's possible that as news spreads that a small but important group had the courage to demonstrate today it will embolden many more to join them. But it will also probably spur the regime to adopt a more robust response too. Nevertheless, protest organisers are promising a turn-out tomorrow and every subsequent day until their (still somehwat unclear) demands are met...
There is the additional problem that there are plenty of shady characters waiting in the wings and getting ready to steal some of the nascent protest movement's thunder, like former Vice President Khaddam and Rifaat al-Assad (Bashar's uncle). The children of shady characters are also now getting in on the act, with Rifaat's son, Ribal al-Assad (director of the Organisation for Democracy and Freedom in Syria), lobbying British government officials and publishing articles outlining the need for democratic reform in Syria. To borrow a phrase which Robert Fisk employed in a recent interview: It's interesting to hear the "son of a war criminal" calling for human rights and freedom. Every Syrian I have ever spoken to about these so-called 'opposition figures' in exile is very suspicious of them and their motives. Nevertheless, if the protests are seen as in any way affiliated with the opposition in exile (which also includes the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood), they will quickly lose credibility.
So, quite where all this is heading I cannot say at the moment. Calls in the protest literature for young people to build a new Syria, free from fear, unemployment or sectarianism, will have resonance. But, I would imagine that some of the protest pages which talk about an uprising (intifada) AGAINST Bashar al-Assad, may be going too far for many who would otherwise give their support to a reformist agenda.
I'm watching this space...
In the meantime, O Sham, I love you and I wish you a positive future. Allah m3kum.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Update 16/3: The families of 27 political prisoners and their supporters had planned to stage a sit-in in front of the Ministry of the Interior in Merjeh Square, Damascus today. Apparently about 150 protesters gathered, including many elderly people and children. They were surrounded by hundreds of police and plainclothers security and within minutes had been forcibly dispersed. Many protesters had their mobile phones taken from them, at least 30 people (and rising) were arrested and several others were injured. Some of those who were arrested were bystanders who had rushed in to try to stop female protesters from being beaten.
Amnesty International's press release can be read here.
Here is video footage of a man (identified as a recently released prisoner of conscience) being dragged away and beaten by plainclothes security armed with sticks.
Supposedly the video was filmed in Damascus on 16th March (uploaded on 17th).
Meanwhile, protesters say that across the whole of Syria about 300 people have been arrested. There are also some more reports emerging about yesterday's protests, including the use of tear gas to break up a demonstration in the countryside near Aleppo. Meanwhile, it is reported that the internet in the whole eastern province of Deir Az-Zur has been cut-off. This, coupled with reports and rumours about security crackdowns in the Hauran, the Jazeera region (north-eastern Syria), and in Aleppo province suggest that perhaps the most significant demonstrations are actually happening outside the capital.
