A revival of Pan-Arabism? & the prospects for revolution in Syria

Nice little article putting events in Tunisia and Egypt into the context of Pan-Arabism, that most well-worn of Middle Eastern political footballs...

The resurrection of pan-Arabism - Opinion - Al Jazeera English

In the meantime we are seeing that any 'transition' period is sure to be anything but smooth sailing. In attempting to clear Tahreer Sq and restore 'normality' the army has provoked renewed demonstrations, with thousands of protesters returning to the square to reinforce the hundreds who had been camped there overnight. There were also reports that tear gas was used to disperse a demonstration of police officers demanding better pay. These are going to be interesting times for the Egyptians!

Bringing matters back to Syria, AJE also produced a readable account of why the Tunisian domino effect is unlikely to spread to Syria:

Syria: 'A kingdom of silence' - Features - Al Jazeera English

A quick statement of my opinion is that Syrians are unlikely to unite behind overthrowing Bashar al-Assad in the way that Egyptians united to get rid of Mubarak. He is much younger (just 45), much less personally tainted by charges of corruption, and gains a degree of credibility by being seen as a leader who has stood up to American and Israeli designs on the region. In addition, his wife, Asma, is seen as a role model for young, educated, sophisticated Syrian women, and she is known to be very supportive of development issues through her Syria Trust for Development.

Nevertheless, it is clear that the Syrian people are desperate for the reform of a corrupt political system which gives them too much stick and not enough carrots.  A small, but welcome, step has been an end to the blocking of Facebook and Youtube, which have been unavailable in Syria since 2007 (hence my lack of blogging activity in Syria since autumn 2007!). Whether the regime will seize this historic opportunity to push through more substantive reforms remains to be seen (serious reform will entail a dialogue and power struggle within the regime itself, between more reformist elements and entrenched interests, particularly in the army and security services).

Finally, and to leave on an optimistic note, it's worth pondering the fact that we are seriously debating the likelihood of changes which just a few weeks ago seemed almost unthinkable. Perhaps this is the most important message to take from these heady days: for the first time in years anything seems to be possible!